How Do Wars Affect Plastic Bottle Prices and Raw Material Costs?

Many businesses may wonder how wars and geopolitical conflicts in other parts of the world can affect the price of plastic bottles used for everyday products.

In reality, the plastics industry is closely connected to the energy and petrochemical industries. Most plastic resins are derived from crude oil and natural gas. When conflicts affect major production areas or international shipping routes, the impact can spread throughout the supply chain — from petrochemical feedstocks and plastic resin prices to packaging costs and finished products.

For businesses that rely on plastic bottles, jerrycans, and containers, understanding this connection can help improve purchasing decisions, cost management, and supply chain planning.

1. Why Do Wars Affect Plastic Resin Prices?

Plastic resins used in packaging, such as PET, HDPE, LDPE, and PP, are linked to the petrochemical industry, which relies on feedstocks derived from crude oil and natural gas.

When conflicts occur in important energy-producing regions, such as the Middle East, several disruptions may follow:

• Higher oil and natural gas prices: Increasing the cost of energy and basic petrochemical feedstocks.

• Petrochemical feedstock shortages: Materials such as naphtha, ethane, and propane are essential inputs for producing chemicals used in plastic manufacturing.

• Reduced petrochemical production: Manufacturers may reduce operating rates or temporarily shut down plants when feedstock supplies become insufficient.

• Higher international shipping risks: Shipping routes may be disrupted or changed, increasing freight costs, insurance premiums, and delivery uncertainty.

A clear example occurred in 2026, when conflict in the Middle East disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, an important route for energy and petrochemical products. This created greater uncertainty in raw material availability and pricing across Asian markets.

2. Which Types of Plastic Are Affected?

Different plastics have different production processes and feedstock requirements. Therefore, they are not necessarily affected by geopolitical conflicts in the same way.

PET (Polyethylene Terephthalate)

PET is commonly used for drinking water bottles, beverage containers, and packaging that requires transparency.

Important feedstocks in PET production include PTA and MEG, which are connected to the petrochemical industry.

When energy and upstream feedstock costs increase, PET production costs may also rise.

HDPE (High-Density Polyethylene)

HDPE is widely used for plastic bottles, jerrycans, and containers for consumer products, cleaning products, oils, and certain chemicals.

As a member of the polyethylene family, HDPE can be affected by changes in feedstock costs and global supply availability, particularly when petrochemical production or transportation is disrupted.

PP (Polypropylene)

PP is used for bottles, containers, caps, and various plastic components.

Its production is linked to propylene, an important petrochemical feedstock.

When propylene availability becomes limited or its price increases, PP resin prices may also be affected.

However, PET, HDPE, and PP prices do not necessarily rise or fall at the same time. Their movements depend on regional production capacity, market demand, inventory levels, and each manufacturer's raw material sources.

3. The Impact Goes Beyond Resin Prices: Transportation Costs Also Increase

Another important factor is transportation and logistics.

During international conflicts, shipping companies may change routes, introduce additional security measures, or charge higher war-risk insurance premiums.

Potential impacts include:

• Higher ocean freight and transportation costs

• Increased shipping insurance premiums

• Longer transportation lead times

• Delayed or uncertain raw material deliveries

• Higher inventory and warehousing costs

Even when a packaging manufacturer purchases plastic resin from a domestic supplier, it may still be affected. Domestic resin prices can also respond to changes in energy costs, international petrochemical markets, and import availability.

4. How Much Can Plastic Bottle Prices Increase When Resin Prices Rise?

The cost of a plastic bottle is not determined by resin prices alone. It includes several other factors, such as:

• Bottle weight and resin consumption per unit

• Raw material and transportation costs

• Electricity and energy consumption

• Labour and operating expenses

• Mold and machinery maintenance costs

• Caps, labels, and other components

• Order volume and production efficiency

For example, consider a plastic bottle weighing 20 grams. If the resin price increases by THB 5 per kilogram, the additional raw material cost per bottle would be approximately THB 0.10.

Calculation:

Bottle weight = 20 grams = 0.020 kilograms

Additional material cost = 0.020 × THB 5

Additional cost = THB 0.10 per bottle

This is a simplified example to illustrate the impact of resin price changes. It does not include production losses, other operating expenses, or actual purchasing conditions.

Even a small increase in resin cost per kilogram can have a significant impact when production volumes reach hundreds of thousands or millions of units.

5. How Should Businesses Prepare for Raw Material Price Volatility?

When raw material prices fluctuate, purchasing strategies and cost management become increasingly important.

Brands and purchasing teams can prepare in several ways.

1) Forecast Material Requirements in Advance

Estimate monthly requirements for bottles and other packaging to help manufacturers plan resin purchasing and production capacity.

Providing demand forecasts in advance can reduce the risk of material shortages and delayed deliveries.

2) Evaluate Raw Material Sources

Ask packaging manufacturers about their raw material sources, lead times, and alternative suppliers to better understand potential supply chain risks.

However, changing suppliers or resin grades should always involve material evaluation and production trials before implementation.

3) Maintain a Balanced Inventory

Holding excessive inventory can tie up working capital and increase storage costs. On the other hand, keeping too little stock may create supply interruptions.

Businesses should establish appropriate safety stock levels based on procurement lead times, market volatility, and the importance of each product.

4) Review Packaging Design

Optimising bottle weight and shape may help reduce the amount of raw material required per unit.

However, lightweighting must maintain the necessary strength, leak resistance, stacking performance, and transportation protection. Reducing weight should never compromise packaging quality.

5) Establish Clear Pricing and Purchasing Terms

During periods of raw material volatility, buyers and manufacturers should clearly agree on pricing validity, order quantities, delivery schedules, and price adjustment conditions.

Clear communication and shared planning can reduce cost uncertainty and help both parties manage their businesses more effectively.

6. Why Is Choosing the Right Plastic Packaging Manufacturer Important?

During periods of market uncertainty, selecting a packaging manufacturer should not be based on unit price alone.

Businesses should also consider the manufacturer's ability to manage raw materials, plan production, control quality, and maintain consistent delivery performance.

A manufacturer with effective purchasing plans, quality control systems, and transparent communication about costs and delivery schedules can help customers reduce operational risks.

In addition, working with a packaging manufacturer during the early design stage allows businesses to review bottle weight, material selection, shape, and production processes together — creating more opportunities for long-term cost optimisation.

Conclusion: Understanding Raw Material Costs Helps Businesses Plan with Confidence

Wars and geopolitical conflicts can affect the plastics industry through several channels, including oil and natural gas prices, petrochemical feedstock availability, production capacity, transportation costs, and delivery lead times.

Although packaging manufacturers cannot control global events, they can reduce potential risks through effective purchasing strategies, inventory management, raw material sourcing, and packaging design optimisation.

For brand owners, working with a packaging manufacturer that understands both materials and production processes is an important part of maintaining product quality, managing costs, and ensuring business continuity.

Chino Plaspack: Your Plastic Packaging Manufacturing Partner

Chino Plaspack Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of plastic bottles, jerrycans, and packaging solutions using PET, HDPE, PP, and other plastic materials.

We also provide consultation on material selection and packaging design to suit different product requirements and applications.

Working closely with a packaging manufacturer from the beginning can help businesses evaluate costs, select suitable materials, and prepare production plans more effectively — even during periods of raw material market volatility.

Chino Plaspack Co., Ltd., we also produce packaging made from various types of plastics. You can explore our services [here].